In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week.
Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. Tiers are preferred over ranks, as it allow you to see the true distance between players, which is not as linear as a ranked list suggests. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Tips:
(1) Link: Week 6 In-depth Commentary
(2) Always favor higher tier players.
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
The main update comes Thursday afternoon. Sometime there will be an early Tuesday version.
(4) Can you do this with Fantasypros' Rest-of-Season rankings?
This was tried last year (example). However, people noticed that the data seemed constantly outdated by 1 or 2 weeks. I suspect that many experts submit outdated RoS rankings.
(5) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up for week 1. The charts are updated weekly and often.
Standard Charts:
QB link: Standard - Quarterbacks
RB link: Standard - Running backs
WR link: Standard - Wide Receivers
TE link: Standard - Tight Ends
K link: Standard - Kickers
DST link: Standard - Defense and special teams
(to avoid paywall issues, right click each > open in new tab)
Flex 
Tier 1: Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster
Tier 2: Giovani Bernard, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Antonio Brown, LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson
Tier 3: Andre Ellington
Tier 4: Frank Gore, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Ben Tate, Andre Williams, Branden Oliver
Tier 5: Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 6: Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Alfred Morris, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, Golden Tate, Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller
Tier 7: Victor Cruz, Julius Thomas
Tier 8: Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Percy Harvin, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 9: Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, C.J. Spiller, Christopher Ivory, Pierre Garcon, Mike Wallace, DeAndre Hopkins, Matt Asiata
Tier 10: Julian Edelman, Michael Floyd, Rob Gronkowski, Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell
Tier 11: Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson
Tier 12: Brian Quick, Shane Vereen, Rueben Randle, Ronnie Hillman, Reggie Bush
Tier 13: Martellus Bennett, Michael Crabtree, Kendall Wright, Greg Olsen, Sammy Watkins, Bishop Sankey
Tier 14: Trent Richardson, Antonio Gates, Larry Fitzgerald, Delanie Walker, Darren Sproles
Tier 15: Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, Eric Decker
Tier 16: Torrey Smith, Larry Donnell, Jeremy Hill, Andrew Hawkins, Odell Beckham Jr.
Tier 2: Giovani Bernard, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Antonio Brown, LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson
Tier 3: Andre Ellington
Tier 4: Frank Gore, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Ben Tate, Andre Williams, Branden Oliver
Tier 5: Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 6: Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Alfred Morris, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, Golden Tate, Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller
Tier 7: Victor Cruz, Julius Thomas
Tier 8: Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Percy Harvin, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 9: Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, C.J. Spiller, Christopher Ivory, Pierre Garcon, Mike Wallace, DeAndre Hopkins, Matt Asiata
Tier 10: Julian Edelman, Michael Floyd, Rob Gronkowski, Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell
Tier 11: Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson
Tier 12: Brian Quick, Shane Vereen, Rueben Randle, Ronnie Hillman, Reggie Bush
Tier 13: Martellus Bennett, Michael Crabtree, Kendall Wright, Greg Olsen, Sammy Watkins, Bishop Sankey
Tier 14: Trent Richardson, Antonio Gates, Larry Fitzgerald, Delanie Walker, Darren Sproles
Tier 15: Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, Eric Decker
Tier 16: Torrey Smith, Larry Donnell, Jeremy Hill, Andrew Hawkins, Odell Beckham Jr.
PPR
Tier 2: Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy
Tier 3: Ben Tate, Justin Forsett
Tier 4: Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Williams, Branden Oliver
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris
Tier 6: Matt Asiata, Darren Sproles, Steven Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Ronnie Hillman, Joique Bell
Tier 7: Reggie Bush, Zac Stacy, Christopher Ivory, Trent Richardson
Tier 8: Bishop Sankey, Stevan Ridley, Darren McFadden
Tier 9: Jerick McKinnon, Jeremy Hill, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 10: Shonn Greene, C.J. Anderson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu
PPR WR
Tier 1: Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Emmanuel Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin
Tier 3: Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, Golden Tate
Tier 4: Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 5: Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Kelvin Benjamin, Victor Cruz
Tier 6: Roddy White, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Ty Hilton, Keenan Allen, Brian Quick
Tier 7: Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 8: Michael Crabtree, Sammy Watkins, Justin Hunter, Andrew Hawkins, Eric Decker
Tier 9: Eddie Royal, Allen Hurns, Torrey Smith, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson
Tier 10: Brandon LaFell, Terrance Williams, James Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Markus Wheaton
Tier 11: Louis Murphy, Andre Holmes, Greg Jennings, Marvin Jones, Miles Austin, Jordan Matthews, John Brown
Tier 12: Kenny Britt, Riley Cooper, Malcom Floyd
PPR TE
Tier 1: Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen
Tier 2: Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates
Tier 3: Jordan Cameron, Martellus Bennett, Larry Donnell, Owen Daniels, Heath Miller
Tier 4: Jason Witten, Zach Ertz
Tier 5: Niles Paul, Dwayne Allen, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed
Tier 6: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Charles Clay, Timothy Wright
Tier 7: Andrew Quarless, Clay Harbor, Coby Fleener, Scott Chandler, Garrett Graham
PPR Flex
Tier 1: Matt Forte, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 2: Arian Foster, Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, Julio Jones
Tier 3: Giovani Bernard, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Ellington, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb
Tier 4: LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Golden Tate
Tier 5: Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker
Tier 6: Ben Tate, Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Kelvin Benjamin, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 7: Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Justin Forsett, Reggie Wayne, Ty Hilton, Keenan Allen, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, Kendall Wright, Lamar Miller, Greg Olsen, Rueben Randle
Tier 9: DeSean Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Williams, Branden Oliver
Tier 10: Delanie Walker, Michael Crabtree
Tier 11: Justin Hunter, Sammy Watkins, Andrew Hawkins, Antonio Gates, Doug Martin, Shane Vereen, Eric Decker
Tier 12: Alfred Morris, Matt Asiata, Eddie Royal
Tier 13: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Allen Hurns, Darren Sproles, Torrey Smith, Steven Jackson, C.J. Spiller
Tier 14: Odell Beckham Jr., Larry Donnell, Allen Robinson, Ronnie Hillman, Joique Bell
Tier 15: Owen Daniels, Terrance Williams, Heath Miller, James Jones
Tier 2: Arian Foster, Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, Julio Jones
Tier 3: Giovani Bernard, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Ellington, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb
Tier 4: LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Golden Tate
Tier 5: Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker
Tier 6: Ben Tate, Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Kelvin Benjamin, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 7: Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Justin Forsett, Reggie Wayne, Ty Hilton, Keenan Allen, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, Kendall Wright, Lamar Miller, Greg Olsen, Rueben Randle
Tier 9: DeSean Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Williams, Branden Oliver
Tier 10: Delanie Walker, Michael Crabtree
Tier 11: Justin Hunter, Sammy Watkins, Andrew Hawkins, Antonio Gates, Doug Martin, Shane Vereen, Eric Decker
Tier 12: Alfred Morris, Matt Asiata, Eddie Royal
Tier 13: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Allen Hurns, Darren Sproles, Torrey Smith, Steven Jackson, C.J. Spiller
Tier 14: Odell Beckham Jr., Larry Donnell, Allen Robinson, Ronnie Hillman, Joique Bell
Tier 15: Owen Daniels, Terrance Williams, Heath Miller, James Jones
Half PPR RB
Tier 2: Giovani Bernard, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington
Tier 3: Ben Tate
Tier 4: Frank Gore, Justin Forsett, Andre Williams, Lamar Miller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Branden Oliver, Fred Jackson
Tier 5: Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Steven Jackson, Matt Asiata, Shane Vereen, C.J. Spiller
Tier 6: Joique Bell, Christopher Ivory, Ronnie Hillman, Darren Sproles
Tier 7: Zac Stacy, Reggie Bush, Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Bishop Sankey
Tier 8: Darren McFadden, Jeremy Hill, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 9: Jerick McKinnon, Shonn Greene, Chris Johnson, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart
Half PPR WR
Tier 1: Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, Jeremy Maclin
Tier 3: Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Golden Tate
Tier 4: Percy Harvin, Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 5: Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon, Keenan Allen
Tier 6: Ty Hilton, Reggie Wayne
Tier 7: Brian Quick, DeSean Jackson, Rueben Randle, Kendall Wright, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 8: Michael Crabtree, Sammy Watkins, Justin Hunter, Eric Decker
Tier 9: Andrew Hawkins, Torrey Smith, Eddie Royal, Odell Beckham Jr., Terrance Williams, Calvin Johnson
Tier 10: Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson, James Jones
Tier 11: Mohamed Sanu, Markus Wheaton, Anquan Boldin
Tier 12: Brandon LaFell, Louis Murphy, Greg Jennings, Jordan Matthews, Andre Holmes, John Brown, Malcom Floyd, Marvin Jones, Miles Austin
Tier 13: Steve Johnson, Kenny Britt
Half PPR TE
Tier 1: Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen
Tier 2: Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates, Martellus Bennett, Larry Donnell, Jordan Cameron
Tier 3: Heath Miller, Owen Daniels, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Dwayne Allen
Tier 4: Niles Paul, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Charles Clay
Tier 5: Timothy Wright, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Coby Fleener, Luke Willson
Tier 6: Brandon Myers, Andrew Quarless, Ladarius Green
Half PPR Flex
Tier 1: Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Demaryius Thomas
Tier 2: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Giovani Bernard, Jordy Nelson
Tier 3: DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant
Tier 4: Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, Jeremy Maclin
Tier 5: Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Ben Tate, Golden Tate
Tier 6: Percy Harvin, Frank Gore, Julius Thomas
Tier 7: Justin Forsett, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin, Fred Jackson, Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Branden Oliver, Lamar Miller
Tier 8: Andre Williams, Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon, Ahmad Bradshaw, Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton
Tier 9: Rob Gronkowski, Reggie Wayne
Tier 10: Alfred Morris, Brian Quick, DeSean Jackson
Tier 11: Rueben Randle, Kendall Wright
Tier 12: Doug Martin, Greg Olsen, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Asiata, C.J. Spiller, Steven Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Shane Vereen
Tier 13: Sammy Watkins, Delanie Walker, Justin Hunter, Joique Bell
Tier 14: Antonio Gates, Christopher Ivory, Martellus Bennett, Darren Sproles, Ronnie Hillman, Eric Decker
Tier 15: Andrew Hawkins, Zac Stacy, Torrey Smith, Reggie Bush
Tier 16: Terrance Williams, Eddie Royal, Stevan Ridley, Larry Donnell, Jordan Cameron, Trent Richardson, Odell Beckham Jr.
