Tier Charts
Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 10 - QB | WR | RB | TE | Flex | K | DST
Introduction
In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Tips
(1) NYTimes link: Week 10 in-depth commentary coming soon
(2) Favor higher tier players.
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.
Rest of Season
You can find rest of season charts here.
Select Week 10 Questions and Answers
I see that you have Big Ben rather high for both this week and ROS. Even as a steelers fan I remain unconvinced. Is he matchup proof? Why is he worth a start from here on out?
Well, this week Ben is very likable. The Jets have been one of the worst teams against the pass. I would easily start Ben over Stafford, Cam, and Wilson. I've watched both the last two games and it doesn't seem like the Steelers like running the ball near the end zone at all. The rise of Martavis Bryant as an additional red zone threat alongside Heath Miller certainly helps. As for the rest of the season, I wouldn't say he's matchup proof but the schedule is pretty soft (NYJ, TEN, bye, NO, CIN, ATL, KC -- KC being the only tough one but that's at home not Arrowhead). There aren't very many teams with both a strong run game and a strong receiving core. Wheaton was already making plays as the WR2, now add Bryant. No need to talk about Antonio Brown. I'd say Ben is clearly at least a tier 3 option ROS, which is the Kaepernick/Palmer range. Is he a tier 2 option ROS in the Cutler/Stafford range? Maybe. When you consider the mediocrity of the normal tier 2 guys this season (Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, Cam), it certainly seems plausible. I agree even the second 6-TD game seems flukey, but a high ceiling makes guys really valuable in fantasy as they can just win you the week outright.
Hello, I notice that Charles Sims is not ranked on your chart. I have to assume that's because the chart does not go high enough to accommodate him? Is that correct?
In the beginning of the week he wasn't, after a few updates Sims is there now and is near the bottom (before yes, he was beyond RB40+ and did not show up). He's not a great option this week. People are welcome to try their luck but I wouldn't recommended it unless you don't have any options in tier 7 or better. It's looking like Rainey will get the start with Sims mixing in. We don't have guarantee about either Sims' usage or efficiency. Might be worth a gamble if you're desperate with no good options and projected to lose by a lot. In most cases though it's going to be safer to see how much the Bucs use him.
I know these tiers are updated throughout the week but would you really put Matt Ryan ahead of Palmer? I like both matchups but do you think Ryan's slump days are over?
First of all, we are down 4 solids quarterbacks due to byes and injuries (Luck, Brady, Rivers, and Foles), so all QB's may seem higher this week than normal. I'm not sure if the Falcons are going to have their O line completely figured out, but it should be better coming out of their bye week than what've we've seen recently. Ryan certainly has a higher ceiling than Palmer. Both have nice match ups, but this is still Matt Ryan we're talking about (averaging nearly 4500 yards in the last 3 seasons). He's easily the better quarterback. Also keep in mind the Cardinals have have one of the better running backs in the league in Andre Ellington, where as the Falcons are pass first and definitely not going to be relying on their 4-way RBBC to get the job done. Fresh off bye and against TB with all three of Julio, White and Douglass healthy, I think this is good week to bet on Ryan bouncing back.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.
