Introduction
In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Tier Charts
Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 11 - QB | WR | RB | TE | Flex | K | DST
Tips
(1) NYTimes link: [Week 11 in-depth commentary]
(2) Favor higher tier players.
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.
Rest of Season
You can find rest of season charts here.
Week 11 Trade Values:
Select Week 11 Questions and Answers
Thoughts on Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin this week?
Beckham vs Benjamin is a very fruitful debate actually. I have both on my roster in two different leagues. Clearly Cam was not himself against the Eagles on Monday Night. There were some twitter whispers about him not being entirely healthy with two bad wheels, but we do know the entire offense was dreadful, and that's against a team that isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse. Benjamin alone also has had drop issues all year; I can remember at least 3 red zone drops. However, the opportunity is there. He is arguably the top red zone pass option over Olsen, and the Panthers clearly don't have good running options this year. Say what you want about garbage time but it's always been a factor in fantasy and this is not the first or the second time Benjamin has put up most of the points in garbage time. He makes the drops but he also makes ridiculous catches each week.
I'm not sure I could list 20 or even 15 receivers I'd rather draft before Beckham if I were drafting today. The kid is a stud making plays left and right. He's made his case for "matchup proof" label, torching DAL, IND, and SEA -- while lined up against Sherman for most the game -- in the last 3 games. I don't really trust Eli, but there are a lot mid tier quarterbacks struggling as much as if not more than Eli recently; Cam, Kaepernick, Ben, Cutler, Wilson, Rivers... basically all of them. Benjamin does get a great matchup against ATL. Beckham is against SF but who cares who he's facing at this point; he passed the Sherman test with an A+. Both are excellent options and this should be a high scoring WR week for the top 22 or 23 guys. I don't think it's obvious you sit Beckham unless it's for a Tier 1 or 2 guy (Sanders, Hilton, Maclin range). I'm giving Beckham a good chance to move up to tier 3 by the end of the week in the Benjamin/DeSean/Golden Tate/Mike Evans range.
Why does Denver top the DST rankings?
If you've watched Denver and St. Louis play this year, I don't think this surprising at all. Denver's front line is deadly fast, and they have the numbers to back it (67 rush yards/game, which is the best in the league). I can't think of CB duo that out classes Talib and Harris off the top of my head. We're talking about a top 5 defense against a bottom 4 offense. The Broncos allows only 314.1 yards/game, good for #5 only behind DET, SF, SEA, and MIA. The Rams have only scored 163 points all season, which is 4th worst behind only JAX, TEN, and OAK (and earlier this year they had Brian Quick). Some teams that have scored more points than the Rams: TB, MIN, NYJ. Doesn't get much better than this, gentlemen.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.
