Introduction
In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Tier Charts
Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 13 - QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST
Tips
(1) NYTimes link: [Week 13 in-depth commentary] coming soon
(2) Favor higher tier players.
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.
Rest of Season
You can find rest of season charts here.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.
